Republicans are - rightly - crowing this morning about the GOP’s victories in the New Jersey Governor’s race and a battery of races in Virginia from the Governorship on down and what they say about the turn in the national mood, if not in a pro-Republican direction then at least in a direction that’s sufficiently hostile to the Democrats that voters in states won by Obama and dominated by the Democrats in the last few years are willing to give individual Republicans another chance.

But the key word there, even in an across-the-board sweep like happened in Virginia, is individual. There remains an ongoing battle on the Right over how Republicans choose which candidates to support - who voters and the national party organs should back in primaries, when and whether to support third party candidacies, etc. It’s a battle intensified by Doug Hoffman’s loss in the NY-23 race after the NRCC-backed candidate, Dede Scoazzafava, ended up swinging the race to the Democrats when she endorsed Bill Owens. But in making sense of such debates, this is a point that cannot be stressed enough: no matter how favorable or unfavorable the overall national climate may be, no matter what ideological compass you want the party to follow, you can’t ever overlook the importance of the individual candidates and the conditions they run in. I said it in 2008 with regard to presidential campaigns, and it’s true as well of races for Governor, Senate or House: ideas don’t run for president, people do.

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Promoted by Erick

Now the primary is over and the votes are in, it’s time we all join together to throw Jon Corzine out of New Jersey for good.

Mayor Steve Lonegan ran a hard fought race, brought in far more votes than the party leadership expected, and garnered support from an electorate that does not traditionally support staunchly conservative candidates. I’ve personally volunteered for Mayor Lonegan in a previous run for office. I know him to be a man of great leadership and for that reason, and so many more, I hope Mayor Lonegan quickly comes to the aide of Christie in his run against Corzine, and I hope those who supported Lonegan’s candidacy will do the same. If we don’t work together in this election, our party will surely fail.

Christie’s for smaller government, fiscal responsibility, high ethical standards, and he’s pro-life. But just as importantly, he’s the candidate who can win the general election in the Garden State. He can restore confidence in a state plagued with political scandal; and with a proven track record over the last eight years as U.S. Attorney, he would restore New Jerseyans’ faith in their statewide leader. But that being said, it will take any candidate awhile to restore what has been lost under the Democrats rule in my beloved home state.

Most importantly, Chris Christie is a born and bred New Jersey Republican, and let me assure you that matters in a state that is frequently the butt of jokes and unfair stereotypes. In a state like New Jersey where people are fiercely proud and loya, and the Republicans are few and far between, it’s wonderful to know a committed leader who is also a New Jersey native. (As if you need reminding, the current governor most definitely is not.)

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Republican former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie leads incumbent governor John Corzine (D) by nine percentage points, 42-33, in a new poll released by Fairleigh Dickinson University. The results should boost confidence among NJ GOP voters that Christie can take down the increasingly unpopular Corzine. Fifty-six percent of respondents said that they have a negative opinion of Corzine, a -23 rating, compared to 31% who had a favorable impression of the corruption-fighting Christie, a +19 spread. Still, 58% said that they had not heard enough about Christie to have an opinion, a number that will only go down as the campaign progresses.

Surprisingly, Christie’s Republican primary challenger, former Bogota mayor Steve Lonegan, also bests Corzine in a head-to-head matchup, 37-36. Lonegan is not as well known as Christie, and trails him in the primary by 43-21%.

The bottom line in these numbers is that New Jersey Republicans have a golden opportunity to take down Corzine in November, if they can avoid a bruising primary fight. Such a victory, coupled with a win in Virginia’s gubernatorial contest, could spark a Republican resurgence heading into the 2010 Congressional elections. Both candidates in New Jersey should keep their eyes on the prize – defeating Corzine – and avoid attacks on each other, so as not to play into Corzine’s hands. If they can manage that, New Jersey could become a November bellwether.